“Time is a Flat Football” is a series of posts which will explore players from Michigan football history members of the 2015 team resembles the most. Tackled in these posts will be the offensive “skill” position groups: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, and Receivers/Tight Ends. My apologies go out to the offensive line, but it’s very difficult to get o-line statistics, and more difficult to compare the groups. I used Python and Pandas almost exclusively for this quick trip to the past, which is intended mostly to be a “Diary” post on the MGoBlog website. Any “predictions” can be described as unscientific, but kind of fun.
Disclaimer: Obviously caveats do apply here. These are namely the effects of other position groups, coaching, and style of offense on the players being analyzed. Also, the past probably has no bearing on what current players will do, unless you believe Rust Cohle. I plan to deal with these issues by completely ignoring them. It’s the off season, people.
The receiving core, much like the rest of Michigan’s offense, struggled last season. The one guy that stuck out was Devin Funchess, who was underutilized and even when he was used it was for bubble screens, which, well, yeah. The rest of the receiving core Let’s take a look at their stats, gathered from sports-reference.com. Here are their stats throughout the years they have been active.
| Yr | Rk | Cls | Player | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec Avg | Rec Td | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2014 | 1 | 2 | De’Veon Smith | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| 1 | 2014 | 2 | 5 | Devin Gardner | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| 2 | 2014 | 3 | 2 | Derrick Green | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| 3 | 2014 | 4 | 3 | Drake Johnson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| 4 | 2014 | 5 | 4 | Justice Hayes | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 0 |
| 5 | 2014 | 6 | 3 | Dennis Norfleet | 15 | 111 | 7.4 | 0 |
| 6 | 2014 | 8 | 3 | Joe Kerridge | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 0 |
| 7 | 2014 | 9 | 3 | Devin Funchess | 62 | 733 | 11.8 | 4 |
| 8 | 2014 | 11 | 1 | Freddy Canteen | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 1 |
| 9 | 2014 | 12 | 2 | Amara Darboh | 36 | 473 | 13.1 | 2 |
| 10 | 2014 | 13 | 2 | Jake Butt | 21 | 211 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 11 | 2014 | 14 | 3 | Jehu Chesson | 14 | 154 | 11.0 | 0 |
| 12 | 2014 | 15 | 2 | Khalid Hill | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 |
| 13 | 2014 | 16 | 3 | A.J. Williams | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| 14 | 2014 | 17 | 4 | Keith Heitzman | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 1 |
| 15 | 2014 | 18 | NaN | Bo Dever | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| 16 | 2014 | 19 | NaN | Da’Mario Jones | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Top performer Funchess has moved on to the greener pastures of the NFL. In addition, Gardner, Hayes, Norfleet, Heitzman, and Dever are off the squad due to a combination of graduation, transfers, and medical hardships. These players account for a decent number of last year’s receptions – 48.7% to be exact. This leaves the 2015 team with what appears to e a very inexperienced receiving corp. But is this true? I’ll look into the number of receptions each team since 1975 has returned.
You can see here that the 2015 team will be returning receivers responsible for just under 100 receptions last year. This is roughly the same amount as we’ve seen each season since 2011. This year’s roster doesn’t seem to be all that depleted compared to 1995, 2007, or even last year (thanks in large part to Jeremy Gallon’s departure). Percentages may be more helpful in exploring this type of information.
The bars of this graph represent the returning group of receivers by percentage of receptions from last year. For instance, the receivers currently on roster made up about 50% of the receptions on the 2014 team. In this case, maize bars represent years similar to this year’s team. Light blue bars are teams which returned a higher percentage of receptions, while dark blue represent teams which returned a lower percentage of receptions.
The similar teams in this comparison are 1980, 1986, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2012. These teams were comprised of receivers responsible for near 50% of the receptions from the season before. Let’s take a look at how the three most recent comparison teams fared after losing about half the production from the previous season.
2005
The 2004 squad was loaded in general, but boasted an especially talented group of receivers. This year had it all: the burner in Steve Breaston, the reliable possession receiver in Jason Avant, and of course, the All-American and eventual 3rd overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, Braylon Edwards. Beyond them were tight ends Tim Massaquoi and Tyler Ecker. Running backs Mike Hart and Kevin Grady caught a few passes out of the backfield as well, contributing to a passing offense which was good for 248 receptions for a total of 2,795 yards. Braylon Edwards alone accounted for 97 receptions and 1,330 yards – about 41% of the receptions and just under 50% of the yards.
Edwards and a few other contributors departed following the 2004 season, leaving a lot of receptions up for grabs.
| Yr | Rk | Cls | Player | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec Avg | Rec Td | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2005 | 14 | 4 | Jason Avant | 82 | 1007 | 12.3 | 8 |
| 1 | 2005 | 10 | 1 | Mario Manningham | 27 | 433 | 16 | 6 |
| 2 | 2005 | 8 | 4 | Steve Breaston | 26 | 291 | 11.2 | 2 |
| 3 | 2005 | 15 | 4 | Tyler Ecker | 21 | 285 | 13.6 | 2 |
| 4 | 2005 | 1 | 2 | Michael Hart | 16 | 154 | 9.6 | 1 |
| 5 | 2005 | 2 | 1 | Kevin Grady | 14 | 113 | 8.1 | 0 |
| 6 | 2005 | 12 | 4 | Carl Tabb | 12 | 96 | 8 | 0 |
| 7 | 2005 | 16 | 5 | Tim Massaquoi | 11 | 86 | 7.8 | 0 |
| 8 | 2005 | 7 | 1 | Antonio Bass | 8 | 64 | 8 | 0 |
| 9 | 2005 | 17 | 2 | Mike Massey | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 2 |
| 10 | 2005 | 18 | 4 | Brian Thompson | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 2 |
| 11 | 2005 | 19 | 2 | Doug Dutch | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| 12 | 2005 | 5 | 2 | Max Martin | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | 2005 | 6 | 4 | Alijah Bradley | 1 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| 14 | Total | 238 | 2672 | 9.45 | 23 |
The next season did not see a significant decrease in receptions or yards, coming in with just 10 fewer receptions and 123 less yards, a basically negligible decrease. Jason Avant stepped up in a big way, accounting for 44 more receptions and 560 more yards than his 2004 season.
While Steve Breaston’s production remained largely the same from his 2004 season, freshman Mario Manningham stepped in to become Michigan’s second receiver in terms of receptions, yards, and TDs, and led the team in Yds/Catch with 16.
Sophomore Chad Henne was the quarterback for the 2005 season, and he was pretty damn good.
2006
One year later, Jason Avant left the ranks along with a few other contributors. As mentioned above, the 2005 team totaled 2,672 yards on 238 receptions, for an average of 9.45 yds/carry and 23 TDs. The 2006 receivers were led by Steve Breaston, Mario Manningham, and Adrian Arrington, who returned from a season ending injury his sophomore year to have a very productive junior season.
| Yr | Rk | Cls | Player | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec Avg | Rec Td | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2006 | 7 | 5 | Steve Breaston | 58 | 670 | 11.6 | 2 |
| 1 | 2006 | 13 | 3 | Adrian Arrington | 40 | 544 | 13.6 | 8 |
| 2 | 2006 | 8 | 2 | Mario Manningham | 38 | 703 | 18.5 | 9 |
| 3 | 2006 | 14 | 2 | Carson Butler | 19 | 166 | 8.7 | 1 |
| 4 | 2006 | 1 | 3 | Michael Hart | 17 | 125 | 7.4 | 0 |
| 5 | 2006 | 15 | 5 | Tyler Ecker | 12 | 155 | 12.9 | 2 |
| 6 | 2006 | 16 | 3 | Mike Massey | 8 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
| 7 | 2006 | 17 | 1 | Greg Mathews | 7 | 68 | 9.7 | 0 |
| 8 | 2006 | 18 | 4 | Obi Oluigbo | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| 9 | 2006 | 2 | 2 | Kevin Grady | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| 10 | 2006 | 4 | 1 | Brandon Minor | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 | 2006 | 12 | 5 | Alijah Bradley | 1 | -5 | -5 | 0 |
| 12 | 2006 | 19 | 5 | Carl Tabb | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | 2006 | 20 | NaN | Rueben Riley | 1 | -9 | -9 | 0 |
| 14 | Total | 206 | 2531 | 7.707143 | 22 |
The 2006 team did not fare quite as well as the 2005 squad, but still performed very well considering they again lost their leading receiver. In this case the emergence of Adrian Arrington was a huge help to the squad. He and Breaston combined to make up for Avant’s departure, plus an extra couple yards and 2 TDs. Mario Manningham improved upon an already impressive Yds/Catch, jumping from 16 Yds to 18.5 despite having an extra 11 catches. Overall the 2006 squad had about 22 fewer catches, and 141 fewer yards. Not too bad for losing a great receiver like Avant.
The receivers had a junior Chad Henne passing to them, who is almost definitely better than any QB on the current roster, something to consider.
2012
The 2012 team was coming off a solid 2011 campaign, with the receivers being led by Junior Hemingway, Jeremy Gallon, Kevin Koger, Roy Roundtree, and a number of other contributors. It was an interesting season in which no receiver had more than 35 receptions or 4 TDs receiving. Junior Hemingway posted a ludicrous 20.6 Yards/Catch. As a whole, the team had 155 receptions, 2377 reception yards, and 22 Rec TDs. Hemingway and Koger were the only departures going into the 2012 season.
| Yr | Rk | Cls | Player | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec Avg | Rec Td | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2012 | 8 | 4 | Jeremy Gallon | 49 | 829 | 16.9 | 4 |
| 1 | 2012 | 12 | 4 | Roy Roundtree | 31 | 580 | 18.7 | 3 |
| 2 | 2012 | 10 | 3 | Drew Dileo | 20 | 331 | 16.6 | 2 |
| 3 | 2012 | 4 | 3 | Devin Gardner | 16 | 266 | 16.6 | 4 |
| 4 | 2012 | 13 | 1 | Devin Funchess | 15 | 234 | 15.6 | 5 |
| 5 | 2012 | 5 | 4 | Vincent Smith | 10 | 74 | 7.4 | 1 |
| 6 | 2012 | 2 | 4 | Fitzgerald Toussaint | 6 | 62 | 10.3 | 1 |
| 7 | 2012 | 14 | 2 | Jerald Robinson | 5 | 69 | 13.8 | 0 |
| 8 | 2012 | 15 | 4 | Mike Kwiatkowski | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 |
| 9 | 2012 | 16 | 3 | Jeremy Jackson | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| 10 | 2012 | 1 | 4 | Denard Robinson | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| 11 | 2012 | 17 | 3 | Joe Reynolds | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| 12 | 2012 | 3 | 2 | Thomas Rawls | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| 13 | 2012 | 18 | 1 | Joe Kerridge | 1 | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 | 2012 | 19 | NaN | Dylan Esterline | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 | Total | 169 | 2591 | 11.70667 | 20 |
2012 saw a small increase in the passing game for Michigan. The receptions increased by 14, yards by 214. Jeremy Gallon stepped up to become the top receiver, and the Devins Gardner and Funchess pitched in, especially on the Yards front.
The QB situation this year was less than ideal. In a move designed to maximize on field talent Devin Gardner played receiver for the first few games. Denard got injured, leaving an overmatched Russell Bellomy to take the reins in the most frustrating Michigan game I think I’ve ever seen. The next week Gardner took over QB duties and finished out the season there. Needless to say, the 2012 team’s quarterback position was not a strong point.
Bottom Line
Michigan teams which had to replace roughly 50% of their production usually did so remarkably well. The 2005, 2006, and 2012 teams barely skipped a beat, even though they had to cover up the losses of Braylon Edwards, Jason Avant, and Junior Hemingway. In each of these cases, veteran receivers picked up some of the slack while new receivers including a freshman Mario Manningham and junior Greg Matthews made big impacts.
Hopefully we’ll be able to add the 2015 season to this category. Losing Devin Funchess seems roughly on par with losing the three receivers mentioned above, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a breakout receiver on the roster. Seniors Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson should pick up some of the slack, and between guys like Freddy Canteen and Drake Harris, Michigan should have a guy ready to step in and pick up the slack. Additionally, this year’s team has a potential All Big Ten tight end in Jake Butt to ease any growing pains that switching to a Harbaugh offense might cause.
In sum, I’m not worried about the receivers. Replacing 50% of the production is not unheard of, and has generally worked out pretty well for Michigan in the past. We have enough talent on the roster to cover the loss of Funchess, and I’m excited to see which of our receivers step up to the challenge. The bigger issue may be whether or not the quarterbacks are able to deliver the ball. The 2005 and 2006 teams were lucky enough to have one of the best quarterbacks in recent Michigan history throwing to them. The 2012 team was not as lucky, although Gardner was not a terrible passer. That seems to be the best comparison for this year’s team. Rudock and Morris will be serviceable passers, but expect the offense to go through the running game, just as the 2012 offense did.
If anyone is interested in using the data I’ve compiled you can get the QB data here and the RB/WR data here. As I mention at the beginning of these posts, the stats were gathered from sports reference. However, I also went through the names and added the class of most players to each entry.